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AO2017 Day 1 Review In Four Match Charts

The first half of the draw is done and we’ve already seen a number of surprises. In this post, Tennis Australia’s GIG has put together win probability charts to capture the ebbs and flows of 4 of the most contested matches on Day 1.

These charts not only consider player pre-match Elo ratings but also their form during the match, updating their expectation of winning points as the match progresses. The size of the points indicate point importance, the larger the relative size the larger the relative importance of the point.

Shelby Rogers d. Simona Halep (6-3 6-1)

The biggest upset of the day was Simona Halep’s loss. Halep was a 90% favorite going into the match against American Shelby Rogers, but an injury gave Rogers an open door to take the win. It was clear midway through the first set that Rogers was going to take advantage of the opportunity.

Alex De Minaur d. Gerald Melzer (5-7 6-3 2-6 7-6(2) 6-1)

Home favorite Alex De Minaur also got a huge win in a tough 5 sets over Gerald Melzer. The odds were fairly optimistic for De Minaur going in, but it must feel like a real milestone to happen at his Major main draw debut. This had to be one of the most roller coaster of matches on Day 1. De Minaur was fairly out of the match after the second game of the third set. In fact, he was down to 2% chances at the win in Set 4. It took a miraculous recovery to pull out the tiebreak and take hold of the match.

Stan Wawrinka d. Martin Klizan (4-6 6-4 7-5 4-6 6-4)

Top players Stan Wawrinka and Angelique Kerber both escaped tricky opponents. It will be interesting to see if that will hurt or help their confidence going into the second round. Wawrinka’s chances were at a match low in the final set, after being the first to be broken in the 7th game. At that point Wawrinka’s chances of turning things around dropped to about 9%. But Wawrinka was able to shake off the dangerous situation he was in and make an impressive comeback.

Angelique Kerber d. Lesia Tsurenko (6-2 5-7 6-2)

Kerber’s three-set debut at at the 2017 AO had to be one of the strangest in terms of the course of her win chances. After securing the first set, Kerber had the match statistically in the bag. Yet, after some shaky final games in the second set, the match went into upset alert. By the 4th game of the third set, she had just a 50-50 chance of taking control of the match back. But Kerber managed to change the storyline of the first weeks of the season and will still have a chance at defending her title.

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