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Importance Breakdown of Fritz-Sock 2016 U.S. Open Match

31 Aug 2016

We have gotten through the first round and already the 2016 U.S. Open has given us a number of epics. One of those was the all-American matchup of Jack Sock and Taylor Fritz, a match that was highlighted in the clutch preview on this blog.

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The clutch summaries for those players boded well for a tight match and neither player disappointed. Still, it is the kind of match you hate either player to lose. After fighting back from two sets down, Fritz couldn’t manage to win three sets in a row and he went down in the fifth (6-7(3) 5-7 6-3 6-1 4-6) just as he did when he met Sock at the Australian Open earlier this year.

In my preview post, I presented a point importance summary that showed that Sock and Fritz have handled pressure similarly, though Sock has tended to have the edge. Summaries like these cannot only help us to anticipate close matches, they can also give us insight into how a match was run.

In the figure below, I give the point-by-point importance breakdown for the Fritz-Sock match (hover over a point to see what the score was at that stage in the match). The peaks in this plot indicate moments in the match where a point had a high probability of influencing the outcome: a point when the pressure must have been on.

As you might expect, importance isn’t smooth but comes in peaks in troughs as players go from early to late points in a game and from early games to late games in set. As you might expect, the importance tends to build as players get to the deciding games of the match.

We expect big points in a final set when both players have an equal number of sets on the board. But what were some of the biggest points before the final set?

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One point that stands out came in the 12th game of the 2rd set, when Sock got his first break point against Fritz. Another came in the 4th set and second game when Fritz reversed the tables and had a break point against Sock.

To see what happened on those and other points with more than negligible importance, I have provided the table below. Here the importance is shown as a percentage. I’ll try to do similar reviews for some of the other big matches that happen as the tournament progresses.

Score (Set, Game, Point) Server Player Who Won Point Importance
0-0 0-0 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-0 0-0 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-0 0-0 15-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-0 0-0 15-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-0 0-0 15-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 6
0-0 0-0 30-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 9
0-0 1-0 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-0 1-0 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 2
0-0 1-0 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-0 1-0 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 2
0-0 1-0 40-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-0 0-2 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
0-0 0-2 15-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
0-0 0-2 30-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
0-0 2-1 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-0 2-1 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
0-0 2-1 30-0 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-0 1-3 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
0-0 1-3 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 1
0-0 1-3 15-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-0 1-3 15-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-0 1-3 30-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
0-0 1-3 40-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
0-0 3-2 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-0 3-2 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
0-0 3-2 30-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
0-0 3-2 30-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
0-0 3-2 30-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 6
0-0 3-2 30-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 11
0-0 3-3 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-0 3-3 0-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-0 3-3 0-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 7
0-0 3-3 0-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-0 3-3 15-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 8
0-0 3-3 30-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 13
0-0 3-3 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 7
0-0 3-3 A-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-0 3-4 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-0 3-4 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-0 3-4 30-0 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-0 3-4 40-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-0 4-4 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-0 4-4 15-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-0 4-4 30-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
0-0 4-4 40-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 1
0-0 4-4 40-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
0-0 4-5 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 4
0-0 4-5 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
0-0 4-5 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 5
0-0 4-5 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 4
0-0 4-5 40-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-0 5-5 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-0 5-5 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-0 5-5 15-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-0 5-5 30-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 4
0-0 5-5 30-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 8
0-0 5-5 40-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-0 5-6 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 4
0-0 5-6 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-0 5-6 30-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
0-0 5-6 40-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
0-0 5-6 40-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-0 6-6 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 11
0-0 6-6 2-0 Sock J. Sock J. 9
0-0 6-6 3-0 Sock J. Sock J. 7
0-0 6-6 1-3 Fritz T. Fritz T. 6
0-0 6-6 1-4 Fritz T. Sock J. 9
0-0 6-6 4-2 Sock J. Fritz T. 6
0-0 6-6 5-2 Sock J. Sock J. 8
0-0 6-6 3-5 Fritz T. Fritz T. 6
0-0 6-6 3-6 Fritz T. Sock J. 11
0-0 6-6 7-3 Sock J. Sock J. 4
1-0 0-0 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
1-0 0-0 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
1-0 0-0 30-0 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-1 0-1 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-1 0-1 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-1 0-1 15-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-1 0-1 30-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-1 0-1 30-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-1 0-1 30-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 9
0-1 0-1 40-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-1 0-1 40-A Fritz T. Fritz T. 9
0-1 0-1 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-1 0-1 A-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 0-1 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-1 0-1 A-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 0-1 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-1 0-1 A-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 0-1 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-1 0-1 A-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 0-1 40-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-1 0-1 40-A Fritz T. Fritz T. 9
0-1 0-1 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-1 0-1 A-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
1-0 1-1 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
1-0 1-1 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 2
1-0 1-1 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 4
1-0 1-1 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 3
1-0 1-1 40-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
1-0 1-1 40-30 Sock J. Sock J. 3
0-1 1-2 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-1 1-2 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-1 1-2 15-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-1 1-2 30-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 1-2 30-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-1 1-2 30-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 10
0-1 1-2 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-1 1-2 A-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 1-2 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
0-1 1-2 A-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
1-0 2-2 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
1-0 2-2 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
1-0 2-2 30-0 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-1 2-3 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 2-3 0-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-1 2-3 0-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 6
0-1 2-3 15-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 6
0-1 2-3 30-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 6
0-1 2-3 30-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 11
0-1 2-3 40-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 6
0-1 2-3 40-A Fritz T. Sock J. 11
1-0 4-2 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 3
1-0 4-2 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 2
1-0 4-2 15-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 4
1-0 4-2 15-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 6
1-0 4-2 15-40 Sock J. Sock J. 7
1-0 4-2 30-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 11
0-1 3-4 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-1 3-4 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-1 3-4 15-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 5
0-1 3-4 15-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 7
0-1 3-4 30-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 7
0-1 3-4 40-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
1-0 4-4 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 4
1-0 4-4 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
1-0 4-4 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 5
1-0 4-4 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 4
1-0 4-4 40-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-1 4-5 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-1 4-5 15-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-1 4-5 30-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
0-1 4-5 40-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
1-0 5-5 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 4
1-0 5-5 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
1-0 5-5 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 5
1-0 5-5 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 4
1-0 5-5 40-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-1 5-6 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 4
0-1 5-6 0-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 6
0-1 5-6 0-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 8
0-1 5-6 15-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 8
0-1 5-6 15-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 10
0-1 5-6 30-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 15
2-0 0-0 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
2-0 0-0 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 0-0 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 2
2-0 0-0 30-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 2
2-0 0-0 30-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
2-0 0-0 30-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 6
0-2 1-0 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-2 1-0 0-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-2 1-0 15-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-2 1-0 15-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-2 1-0 15-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-2 1-0 30-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 6
0-2 1-0 40-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-2 1-0 A-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-2 1-0 40-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-2 1-0 40-A Fritz T. Sock J. 6
2-0 1-1 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
2-0 1-1 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 1-1 15-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 2
2-0 1-1 15-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 4
2-0 1-1 15-40 Sock J. Sock J. 4
2-0 1-1 30-40 Sock J. Sock J. 7
2-0 1-1 40-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 4
2-0 1-1 40-A Sock J. Fritz T. 7
0-2 2-1 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
0-2 2-1 15-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
0-2 2-1 30-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 1
0-2 2-1 30-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
0-2 2-1 40-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
2-0 1-3 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 1
2-0 1-3 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 1-3 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
2-0 1-3 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-2 3-2 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-2 3-2 0-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
0-2 3-2 0-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-2 3-2 15-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-2 3-2 30-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-2 3-2 40-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
2-0 2-4 0-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 2-4 0-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 2-4 0-30 Sock J. Sock J. 1
2-0 2-4 15-30 Sock J. Sock J. 1
2-0 2-4 30-30 Sock J. Sock J. 1
2-0 2-4 40-30 Sock J. Sock J. 1
0-2 4-3 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-2 4-3 0-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-2 4-3 15-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
0-2 4-3 30-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
0-2 4-3 30-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
0-2 4-3 40-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
2-0 3-5 15-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 3-5 15-30 Sock J. Sock J. 1
2-0 3-5 30-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 3-5 30-40 Sock J. Sock J. 2
2-0 3-5 40-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 3-5 40-A Sock J. Sock J. 2
2-0 3-5 40-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-0 3-5 40-A Sock J. Fritz T. 2
1-2 0-0 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
1-2 0-0 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
1-2 0-0 15-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
1-2 0-0 30-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
1-2 0-0 40-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
2-1 0-1 0-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
2-1 0-1 0-15 Sock J. Sock J. 5
2-1 0-1 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 4
2-1 0-1 30-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
2-1 0-1 30-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 7
2-1 0-1 30-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 12
1-2 2-0 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 3
1-2 2-0 0-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 5
1-2 2-0 15-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 4
1-2 2-0 30-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
1-2 2-0 40-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 1
1-2 2-0 40-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
2-1 0-3 0-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-1 0-3 0-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 2
2-1 0-3 0-30 Sock J. Sock J. 3
2-1 0-3 15-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
2-1 0-3 15-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
1-2 4-0 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
1-2 4-0 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 1
1-2 4-0 15-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 1
1-2 4-0 15-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
1-2 4-0 30-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
1-2 4-0 40-30 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
1-2 5-1 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
2-2 0-0 0-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 7
2-2 0-0 0-15 Sock J. Sock J. 10
2-2 0-0 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 9
2-2 0-0 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 6
2-2 0-0 40-15 Sock J. Sock J. 2
2-2 0-1 0-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 7
2-2 0-1 0-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 10
2-2 0-1 15-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 9
2-2 0-1 15-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 14
2-2 0-1 15-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 16
2-2 2-0 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 7
2-2 2-0 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 5
2-2 2-0 30-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
2-2 2-0 30-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 6
2-2 2-0 30-30 Sock J. Sock J. 13
2-2 2-0 40-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 7
2-2 2-0 40-40 Sock J. Sock J. 13
2-2 2-0 A-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 7
2-2 2-0 40-40 Sock J. Sock J. 13
2-2 2-0 A-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 7
2-2 2-0 40-40 Sock J. Sock J. 13
2-2 2-0 A-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 7
2-2 2-0 40-40 Sock J. Sock J. 13
2-2 2-0 A-40 Sock J. Sock J. 7
2-2 0-3 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 3
2-2 0-3 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 2
2-2 0-3 15-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 4
2-2 0-3 15-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 6
2-2 0-3 15-40 Fritz T. Fritz T. 7
2-2 0-3 30-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 10
2-2 4-0 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 2
2-2 4-0 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 1
2-2 4-0 15-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
2-2 4-0 15-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 4
2-2 4-0 15-40 Sock J. Sock J. 5
2-2 4-0 30-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 7
2-2 1-4 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
2-2 1-4 15-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
2-2 1-4 30-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
2-2 4-2 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 8
2-2 4-2 15-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 6
2-2 4-2 15-15 Sock J. Sock J. 10
2-2 4-2 30-15 Sock J. Sock J. 7
2-2 4-2 40-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 3
2-2 4-2 40-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 8
2-2 4-2 40-40 Sock J. Sock J. 15
2-2 4-2 A-40 Sock J. Sock J. 8
2-2 2-5 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 2
2-2 2-5 15-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
2-2 2-5 30-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 1
2-2 2-5 30-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
2-2 2-5 40-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 1
2-2 5-3 0-0 Sock J. Sock J. 9
2-2 5-3 15-0 Sock J. Sock J. 6
2-2 5-3 30-0 Sock J. Fritz T. 4
2-2 5-3 30-15 Sock J. Fritz T. 8
2-2 5-3 30-30 Sock J. Sock J. 17
2-2 5-3 40-30 Sock J. Fritz T. 9
2-2 5-3 40-40 Sock J. Fritz T. 17
2-2 5-3 40-A Sock J. Fritz T. 32
2-2 4-5 0-0 Fritz T. Fritz T. 11
2-2 4-5 15-0 Fritz T. Sock J. 8
2-2 4-5 15-15 Fritz T. Fritz T. 14
2-2 4-5 30-15 Fritz T. Sock J. 10
2-2 4-5 30-30 Fritz T. Sock J. 21
2-2 4-5 30-40 Fritz T. Sock J. 39


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